The short answer: On October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00%, but two of the twelve voting officials wanted another quarter-point hike, and the Fed again said inflation "remains elevated." Because the target didn't change, prime-based HELOCs and other variable lines shouldn't move because of this decision. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Fed, so the next real test for borrowers is the Fed's December 8–9 meeting and the inflation reports before it.
As of October 28, 2026. Figures below are published benchmarks and national averages, not rates offered by Emory Financial.
What did the Fed decide on October 28?
The Federal Open Market Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, the level it set when it raised rates on September 16 (Federal Reserve, October 28, 2026). In its statement, the Fed said the economy is expanding at a strong pace and the job market has held steady, but inflation is still elevated. It added that it wants more information before deciding what's needed to bring inflation back to its 2% goal.
The vote was 10–2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented because they preferred raising rates by a quarter point at this meeting. When I wrote Monday's preview, I said this meeting could go either way. The two dissents tell you the "hike" side is still very much alive.
Why does a hold with two dissents matter?
Because it keeps December in play. Inflation was 3.7% over the 12 months through September (Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 14, 2026), well above the Fed's 2% target. In the minutes of the September meeting, most officials judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end (FOMC minutes, September 15–16, 2026).
The next scheduled meeting is December 8–9, and it comes with a new set of economic projections (Federal Reserve meeting calendar). I'm not going to predict the outcome. What I'd tell any homeowner is this: the next six weeks of inflation news matter more to your HELOC than today did.
Which of my loans does today's decision affect?
What the October 28 hold means for your loan
| Changes because of today's decision? | What to watch next | |
|---|---|---|
| HELOC tied to prime | No the Fed's target didn't move | The December 8–9 meeting |
| Adjustable-rate mortgage | No not until your next adjustment date | Your index and adjustment caps |
| Existing fixed-rate mortgage | No your rate is fixed for the life of the loan | Escrow changes from taxes or insurance |
| New fixed-rate mortgage | indirectly, through bond yields | Your rate lock and its expiration date |
Banks generally move the prime rate when the Fed changes its target. Prime was 7.00% on October 22 (Federal Reserve H.15), and with no change to the target today, there's no Fed-driven reason for it to move this week. If your HELOC is prime plus a margin, your rate should stay where it is for now.
Fixed mortgage rates are a different story. They follow longer-term bond yields and inflation expectations. Freddie Mac's national average for a 30-year fixed was 7.32% on October 22, with the 15-year at 6.68% (Freddie Mac PMMS, October 22, 2026). Those averages can move this week on how investors read today's statement, in either direction.
Key rates around the October 28 decision
I have a HELOC. What should I do before December?
You have a window, not an emergency. Three things worth doing while rates are on hold:
- Find your index and margin. They're on your HELOC agreement or monthly statement. If your index is prime, a December hike would likely show up on your statement soon after prime changes.
- Know where you are in the loan. During the draw period, many HELOCs are interest-only, so any rate change hits your payment right away. When the repayment period starts, the payment rises because principal is added.
- Ask about a fixed-rate option. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau notes that some HELOCs let you convert part of the balance to a fixed rate (CFPB HELOC booklet). It usually starts higher than the variable rate, but it makes the payment predictable.
If you're weighing your options, my HELOC vs. cash-out refinance guide walks through the blended-rate math.
I'm buying or refinancing. Does today change my plan?
Not much, and that's the point. A hold doesn't make fixed rates cheaper, and two votes for a hike mean the Fed isn't signaling cuts. My practical advice:
- If you're in escrow and the rate works for your budget, lock it and close on time. A lock protects you whichever way rates move.
- If you're still shopping, get fully pre-approved now so you can lock quickly once you're in contract. Waiting for the Fed to cut is a guess right now.
- If you're considering a refinance, today's decision doesn't change your math. The gap between your current rate and today's rates, your costs and how long you'll stay still decide it.
Reading from outside California? Fed decisions, the prime rate and Freddie Mac averages are national, so all of this applies to you too.
Derek\'s take
Today was a "nothing changed, but pay attention" day. If you have a fixed-rate first mortgage, you can stop reading the Fed headlines. If you carry a HELOC balance from a remodel, an ADU or debt consolidation, a hold with two dissents is a heads-up: December could bring another increase, and now is a calm moment to decide whether to pay it down, fix part of it or leave it alone. I'm glad to look at it with you. Book a call with me: thirty minutes, no credit pull, no obligation.
Frequently asked questions
Did the Fed raise rates on October 28, 2026?
No. It held the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% on a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point increase.
Will my HELOC rate change after this meeting?
If your HELOC is tied to prime, this decision shouldn't change it, because the Fed's target didn't move. Your rate could still change if your index changes for other reasons or at a future Fed meeting.
When is the next Fed meeting?
December 8–9, 2026. It includes the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections.
Does the Fed's hold lower mortgage rates?
Not directly. Fixed mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields and inflation expectations. They can move after a Fed announcement based on how investors read it, up or down.
This article is general education, not financial advice, and not an offer of credit. Rates and benchmarks shown are national averages or published indexes as of the dates noted and will change.
Sources
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement (October 28, 2026)
- Federal Reserve, Implementation Note (October 28, 2026)
- Federal Reserve, Minutes of the FOMC, September 15–16, 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendars
- Federal Reserve, H.15 Selected Interest Rates
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 22, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (October 14, 2026)
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, What you should know about home equity lines of credit
This article is general education, not a commitment to lend, an offer of credit, or tax, legal or investment advice. All loans are subject to credit approval, income and asset verification, and property appraisal. Programs, rates, terms and limits change without notice; figures are current as of the publish date. Derek Shao, NMLS #242117, CA DRE #01358261. Financial Dynamics, Inc. DBA Emory Financial, Company NMLS #393986. Equal Housing Opportunity.
