The short answer: Freddie Mac's national average 30-year fixed rate fell for a third straight week, to 7.18% on November 5, down from 7.40% in mid-October. But this morning's October jobs report was much stronger than expected (165,000 jobs added versus a forecast of 65,000), and Treasury yields rose right after it. That means the recent dip could stall or reverse. If you're in escrow with a closing date set, today is a good day to talk to your loan officer about a lock rather than betting on further declines.

As of November 6, 2026. Rates below are published national survey averages and benchmarks, not rates offered by Emory Financial. Markets can move during the day.

How much have mortgage rates come down?

A bit, and steadily. Freddie Mac's weekly survey (conventional purchase loans, 20% down, excellent credit) peaked at 7.40% on October 8 and October 15, then eased to 7.32%, 7.24% and, on November 5, 7.18%. The 15-year average was 6.57%. A year ago, the 30-year average was 6.22% (Freddie Mac PMMS, November 5, 2026). Freddie Mac's chief economist Sam Khater said rates "continued their downward trajectory this week" (Freddie Mac, November 5, 2026).

Freddie Mac 30-year fixed national average, fall 2026

6.95%Sep 177.03%Sep 247.28%Oct 17.4%Oct 87.4%Oct 157.32%Oct 227.24%Oct 297.18%Nov 5
Weekly national survey averages for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Not a rate quote. Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as compiled by Mortgage News Daily (November 2026)

The reason is the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which fixed mortgage rates tend to follow, slipped from 4.98% on October 29 to 4.90% on November 4, according to the Fed's daily data (Federal Reserve H.15). When I wrote about rates climbing past 7.4% in October, I said nobody could promise where they'd go next. They came down a little. Today is a reminder that they can also go back up.

What did today's jobs report say?

It was strong. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 165,000 jobs in October, and revised August and September up by a combined 84,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and 3.1% over the past year (BLS figures as reported by The Tribune/ANI, November 6, 2026). The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, and economists polled by Reuters had expected only 65,000 new jobs (Reuters via Freedom 96.9, November 6, 2026).

October payrolls vs. what economists expected

65,000Reuters poll forecast165,000Reported for October
Initial estimate; the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises monthly figures. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation for October 2026, as reported by Reuters and ANI (November 6, 2026)

Good news for workers, but bond investors read a hot job market as a reason the Fed may keep pushing rates up. Shortly after the release, the 10-year Treasury yield was up 4 basis points to 4.88%, and market bets on a Fed rate hike in December rose to 78% from 70% (Reuters via Investing.com, November 6, 2026). That's a market probability, not a forecast from me or the Fed.

What's coming up that could move rates again?

A few dates to watch before the end of the year:

Rate-moving dates to watch this fall

  1. 1

    Tuesday, November 10

    October inflation (CPI)

    • Released 8:30 a.m. Eastern
    • A hot reading tends to push yields up
  2. 2

    Thursday, November 12

    Freddie Mac weekly survey

    • First weekly average that reflects today's jobs report
  3. 3

    Friday, November 20

    California jobs numbers

    • October state unemployment and payrolls from EDD
  4. 4

    December 8–9

    Federal Reserve meeting

    • Press conference December 9
    • Decides whether to raise its target from 3.75%–4.00%
Schedules as published by each agency; Freddie Mac releases its survey on Thursdays. Source: BLS November 2026 release schedule; California EDD; Federal Reserve December 2026 calendar

The October CPI comes out Tuesday, November 10 (BLS release schedule), and the Fed meets December 8–9 (Federal Reserve calendar). The Fed held its target at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, with two officials voting for a hike, which I covered in The Fed held rates today. Here in California, the unemployment rate was 5.1% in September, and October's state numbers come out November 20 (California EDD).

I'm in escrow. Should I lock or float?

I can't tell you where rates are going, and neither can anyone else. What I can tell you is how to think about it:

  • A lock protects you from increases, not from your own file changing. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau explains that a rate lock means your rate won't change between the offer and closing, but it can still change if you change your loan type or down payment, the appraisal comes in differently than expected, your credit changes, or the lender can't document income like overtime or bonus (CFPB, What is a lock-in or a rate lock?).
  • Match the lock to your real closing date. Locks are commonly 30, 45 or 60 days, and the CFPB warns they can be expensive to extend. With Thanksgiving and the holidays coming, build in a cushion.
  • Floating is a bet. If you're unlocked, your rate can change at any time. After a strong jobs report, with inflation data due Tuesday, I'd want a good reason to keep that risk open.
  • Check page 1 of your Loan Estimate. It shows whether your rate is locked and until when. It won't show the cost of an extension, so ask.

What if I'm not in escrow yet, or thinking about a refinance?

Then today's report is a "watch," not an "act." If you're shopping for a home, get pre-approved and keep an eye on the November 10 inflation report and the December Fed meeting. If you already have a low fixed rate, there's still no reason to give it up; if you need cash, a separate home equity line may make more sense than a cash-out refinance (here's how to compare them). And if you bought or refinanced in the last year at a higher rate, it's worth knowing your current rate and payoff, so we can tell quickly if a refinance ever pencils out.

Reading from outside California? The rate and jobs figures in this article are national. Only the unemployment figure from EDD is California-specific.

Derek\'s take

Three weeks of falling rates feels like a breather, and it's natural to wonder whether to wait for more. Today's jobs number is why I don't make rate predictions: one report moved the bond market within minutes. If you're in escrow, the question isn't "where are rates going?" It's "how much risk can my budget take between now and closing?" If you'd like to walk through your lock, your closing date and what a change would mean for you, book a call with me. Thirty minutes, no credit pull, no obligation.

Frequently asked questions

What is the average 30-year mortgage rate right now?

Freddie Mac's national weekly average was 7.18% on November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before and up from 6.22% a year earlier. It's a survey average for borrowers with strong credit and 20% down, not a quote; your rate depends on your loan.

Why would a strong jobs report push mortgage rates up?

A strong job market can keep inflation pressure up and make a Fed hike more likely. Investors respond by demanding higher yields on Treasury bonds, and fixed mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury.

Can my locked rate still change?

Yes, if your application changes. The CFPB lists examples such as a different loan type or down payment, an appraisal that comes in higher or lower than expected, a credit score change, or income the lender can't document.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

No one knows yet. The Fed meets December 8–9, and after today's report, markets put the odds of a hike at about 78%, according to Reuters. The October inflation report on November 10 is the next big data point.

Does a Fed hike raise my fixed mortgage rate?

Not directly. An existing fixed rate doesn't change. A hike usually moves the prime rate, which affects many HELOCs, while new fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market.

This article is general education, not financial advice, and not an offer of credit or a commitment to lend. Rates cited are published national averages and benchmarks as of November 6, 2026, and are re-checked on the day of publication.

Sources

This article is general education, not a commitment to lend, an offer of credit, or tax, legal or investment advice. All loans are subject to credit approval, income and asset verification, and property appraisal. Programs, rates, terms and limits change without notice; figures are current as of the publish date. Derek Shao, NMLS #242117, CA DRE #01358261. Financial Dynamics, Inc. DBA Emory Financial, Company NMLS #393986. Equal Housing Opportunity.